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How do you define how likely something is?

Believe it or not, the terms used to define likelihood actually have a scale of reference called the probability line. The probability line shows you the continuum between impossible (or 0% chance) to certain (or 100% chance). These terms are applied in any probability or chance situation.

scale from 0 (impossible) to 1(certain) with unlikely, even chance, and likely

You can use this probability line regardless of whether you have the probability in fraction form or percent form. See if you can identify the likelihood of each event below.

Flipping a coin and getting tails.


Certain

Even Chance

Impossible


Good job! The percent chance for the coin landing on tails is 50%. This is an even chance.
The percent chance for the coin landing on tails is 50%. This is an even chance.
Choosing a red ball out of a bag with 1 red and 6 yellow balls.


Even Chance

Unlikely

Highly Unlikely


That is correct. The chance is 1 in 7, which is just over 14%. It is highly unlikely.
The chance is 1 in 7, which is just over 14%. It is highly unlikely.
A spinner with four equal slices of blue, green, yellow, and orange. On one spin, the chance of getting an orange or blue.


Even Chance

Unlikely

Impossible


Nice work. There are four spots, and two are favorable. This is an even chance.
There are four spots, and two are favorable. This is an even chance.

Complete